Bitcoin ETFs snap a seven-day inflow streak as the macro turns risk-off

For a week, the flows told a clean story: money was coming back to Bitcoin. US spot Bitcoin ETFs strung together seven straight sessions of net inflows, gathering close to $999 million and helping lift total assets across the funds back to roughly $80.9 billion, up from about $74.4 billion at the start of July. Then, on July 23, the streak broke with about $225 million heading out the door, the first negative day since a sharper $425 million outflow on July 13.

One down day does not undo a good week, and the flows are still positive on the month. But the reason behind the reversal is worth more than the number itself.

This is a macro story, not a crypto one

The pressure is coming from outside the market. Higher oil prices and a fresh round of tariff measures have lifted inflation expectations, and that has pushed US Treasury yields higher. When safe government debt pays more, the money that had been renting space in risk assets, crypto included, has a reason to go home. Bitcoin has spent this stretch trading like the risk asset it often is, in the mid-$60,000s, with Ether in the same risk-off boat.

ETF flows are the cleanest read we have on how institutions are leaning, which is exactly why a single red day gets attention. It is less about Bitcoin's story changing and more about the cost of holding anything speculative going up for a few days.

The $100,000 question is back

Into that softness, Standard Chartered reaffirmed its call for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026. That target has traveled a long way this year, marked down from an original $300,000 and then $150,000 before settling at $100,000. The bank framed the recent weakness tied to Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, as a "communication challenge" rather than a deterioration in the underlying case.

It is a reminder that price targets are opinions with a logo attached, and this one has moved a lot. From roughly the mid-$60,000s, $100,000 by December is still a large move that would need the macro wind to turn back in crypto's favor.

Why it matters for you

If you hold Bitcoin, the near-term driver on your screen is not a crypto headline, it is the bond market. Watch Treasury yields and the tariff and inflation news that moves them. Inflows tend to follow when yields ease, and they tend to stall when yields climb. That relationship has been the tell for most of the summer.

Our read

The following is ScalpStreet analysis, not reporting. A single $225 million outflow after a $999 million week is noise, not a trend, and we would not read much into one session. The signal we are watching is the yield backdrop, because that is what actually decides whether the next week of flows is green or red. As for the $100,000 call, we take bank targets as context, not as a plan. A forecast that has been cut twice this year is telling you the range of outcomes is wide, and the honest position from here is that the macro, not conviction, sets the ceiling.

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